By: Tom of Moore’s Law Is Dead
Editing by: KarbinCry
On October 13th the RX 6600 launched at the price and availability levels leaked by Moore’s Law Is Dead (MLID) one week prior (https://youtu.be/eS6pYpOYZKs). This “almost an RTX 3060” was indeed widely in stock for hours on its launch day near its $329 MSRP. However, as expected – that stock is drying up quickly, while Nvidia basically offers no reasonable low end alternatives for desktop PC gamers.
The good news? -MLID can confirm AMD will be massively increasing low end and midrange desktop GPU production over the next couple quarters.
The Bad News? -MLID can confirm that Nvidia is reducing Ampere shipments next quarter despite record demand from gamers persisting… and it’s not just because of logistical issues, multiple MLID sources are saying Nvidia literally plans to stop production of Ampere temporarily.
That’s right, MLID was tipped off to a rather wild allegation of Nvidia’s latest attempts at price fixing a few weeks ago, and while this source was a very well trusted one – the idea that Nvidia would literally stop Ampere production during a holiday season was too crazy to run with until more sources could be consulted…and they were:
Pictured Above: Testimonials from MLID AIB, Distributor, and Manufacturing Sources
The feedback was fairly consistent, and at the very least MLID can confirm the following:
As of now, there will be lower Ampere Shipments in Q4 compared to Q3.
Multiple sources indicate this is planned and intentional, and not something having to do with logistical worries or some pricing dispute over wafers with SAMSUNG.
Multiple sources indicate a refresh from Nvidia H1 2022, and it might be more than “SUPER” cards.
So not only is Nvidia going out of their way to stymie the Intel ARC launch, as covered in a recent MLID report (https://youtu.be/F-eB6UysSpw), but they are also doing so while attempting to artificially keep prices high before they enact a SUPER or maybe even an RTX 4000 refresh early 2022.
All of this makes sense – Nvidia regrets not openly giving Ampere higher pricing than their fake MSRPs suggested in late 2020, the series segmentation is a mess of confusing VRAM amounts and inconsistent price/performance tiers, and the only thing that is likely to get in the way of Nvidia justifying a refresh that offers worse price/performance than their on-paper RTX 30-Series MSRPs’ is if Intel can launch a serious midrange lineup, when said Nvidia refresh happens.
Nvidia realized that if they keep producing at the current rate, there will be a crash in pricing by Q2, and they just don’t want that to happen. As inflammatory as it sounds – Nvidia has seemingly decided that it makes sense to halt production or hoard cards soon, make “enough” money to hit earnings this year, and then, in doing so, justify higher prices to make significantly more money next year.
After all, the stock market likes to see consistent rises in revenue every quarter, and Nvidia is confident they are already going to have an excellent quarter before Q4 is even halfway done. It is a common sales tactic to move back revenue into the following quarter if you are already meeting your goals for this quarter – that’s what it seems Nvidia is doing.
Now, let’s be clear that MLID is told AMD is also planning to raise prices with their next gen - the RX 7000 series. However we feel their strategy is more typical of what’s been going on lately – they will try to secure the discreet GPU performance crown, and bring performance up a tier or two while also increasing pricing by almost a tier. Increasing prices, but increasing performance at least as much as the price goes up. That’s AMD’s plan, not Nvidia’s.
As we hear it, Nvidia has come to fully appreciate the stranglehold they have on production, market share, and of course on the mindshare with the incredible success they have seen with Ampere despite its horrific power consumption and controversial fake MSRPs at launch.
A $2000 RTX 4090 will sell just fine, even if it underperforms a $2000 RX 7950 XT. But that $2000 4090 wouldn’t be accepted by the market if you have 3090’s drifting below MSRP ($1,499) early next year. So Nvidia is planning to not let that happen.
And honestly? MLID believes gamers have proven that they will be more than willing to swallow a $400-$500 RTX 4060 (or “3060 SUPER”), if the RTX 3060 stays at its current $500-$600 street price. As long as these types of actions by Nvidia are tolerated by consumers, Nvidia will keep doing them. It's just good business...
Oh, and we have never needed Intel to succeed with a product more than now. Intel ARC can put the pricing, volume, and mindshare pressure on Nvidia in ways AMD won’t, and maybe even can’t. Good Luck Intel, we need you to succeed on this one.
Video Version: https://youtu.be/hH-W-zVcjNQ